Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 3470 · vendor 5c
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 44 | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| +10% to +30% | 39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 13 sales out of 84 tracked listings.
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
The biggest single posting holds 40% of listed quantity across 11 postings (HHI 0.311, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 43% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 54s 64c | |
| 2 | 10s 7c | |
| Brass Knuckles Blacksmithing | 2 | 6s 67c |
| 2 | 2s 60c | |
| 1 | 98c | |
| 2 | 1c | |
| 1 | −2s 21c | |
| 2 | −3s 18c | |
| 2 | −7s 27c | |
| 6 | −9s 8c | |
| 3 | −11s 82c | |
| 2 | −14s 89c | |
| 2 | −15s 36c | |
| 3 | −17s 38c | |
| 2 | – | |
| 1 | – | |
| Veteran's Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
| Guard's Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
| Protector's Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
| Acolyte's Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
| Crusader's Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
| Veteran's Gloves Blacksmithing | 4 | – |
| Guard's Gloves Blacksmithing | 4 | – |
| Protector's Gloves Blacksmithing | 4 | – |
| Acolyte's Gloves Blacksmithing | 4 | – |
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