Wool Cloth
Trade Goods · Cloth · item 2592 · vendor 33c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 457 | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| floor to +10% | 68 | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| +10% to +30% | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 32 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 140 sales out of 565 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 31c | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| −5% 1s 39c | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +0% 1s 46c | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| +5% 1s 53c | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| +10% 1s 61c | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| +20% 1s 75c | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +30% 1s 90c | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| +50% 2s 19c | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -3.52 ± 0.52: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.71. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 16% of listed quantity across 138 postings (HHI 0.06, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 39% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s 46c | 26s 40c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s 46c | 26s 40c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s 45c | 26s 40c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s 44c | 26s 40c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s 46c | 26s | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s 46c | 26s | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s 45c | 26s | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s 44c | 26s | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s 46c | 28s 40c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s 46c | 28s 40c | 20 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 EZ-Thro Wrap Engineering |
1 | 3s 29c |
 Bronze Framework Engineering |
1 | 2s 37c |
 Whirring Bronze Gizmo Engineering |
1 | 1s 69c |
 Bolt of Woolen Cloth Tailoring |
3 | −25c |
 Wool Bandage First Aid |
1 | −1s 20c |
 Heavy Dynamite Engineering |
1 | −1s 51c |
 Heavy Wool Bandage First Aid |
2 | −2s 38c |
 Woolen Tourniquet First Aid |
2 | −4s 31c |
 Small Bronze Bomb Engineering |
1 | −5s 23c |
 Explosive Sheep Engineering |
2 | −9s 32c |
 Target Dummy Engineering |
1 | −9s 56c |
| SAF-T Bronze Bomb Engineering |
1 | −21s 78c |
| SAF-T Jumbo Dynamite Engineering |
1 | – |
 Shafety Sheep Engineering |
2 | – |
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