FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Thick Leather Ammo Pouch

Quiver · Ammo Pouch · item 8218 · vendor 10s

own demand model

Floor20scheapest 20s

Median20sby quantity

Listed5858 listings

Sold / day48avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	41	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%
floor to +10%	9	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 32 sales out of 50 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 18s	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%
−5% 19s	34%	34%	34%	34%	34%
+0% 20s	69%	69%	69%	69%	69%
+5% 21s	96%	96%	96%	96%	96%
+10% 22s	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
+20% 24s	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
+30% 26s	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
+50% 30s	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 6.73. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at50seach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1s 50c

Chance it sells100%~1.25h on the AH

Expected value47s 44c37s 44c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 55% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.356, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 78% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Leatherworking: 10× Thick Leather 5s 89c, 1× Cured Thick Hide 10s 10c, 1× Elixir of Defense 5s 16c, 6× Silken Thread 4s 50c

Materials 1g 1s → sells for 19s: −82s 16c per craft