FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Turtle Scale Bracers

Armor · Mail · item 8198 · vendor 40s 13c

no demand model yet

Floor1g 10scheapest 1g 10s

Median1g 88sby quantity

Listed2626 listings

Sold / day10avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	20	83%	83%	83%	83%	83%
+10% to +30%	14	29%	29%	29%	29%	29%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 9 sales out of 34 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Needs tracked sales to fit a model.

Best posting price

Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 35% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.26, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 100% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Leatherworking: 8× Thick Leather 5s 89c, 12× Turtle Scale 10s 96c, 1× Heavy Silken Thread 19s 45c

Materials 1g 98s → sells for 1g 4s: −93s 59c per craft