FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Azure Silk Pants

Armor · Cloth · item 7046 · vendor 14s 94c

own demand model

Floor14s 99ccheapest 14s 99c

Median14s 99cby quantity

Listed8585 listings

Sold / day23avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	70	27%	46%	46%	46%	46%
floor to +10%	6	50%	50%	50%	50%	50%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 23 sales out of 76 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 13s 49c	91%	99%	99%	99%	99%
−5% 14s 24c	56%	78%	78%	78%	78%
+0% 14s 99c	25%	42%	42%	42%	42%
+5% 15s 74c	10%	19%	19%	19%	19%
+10% 16s 49c	4%	8%	8%	8%	8%
+20% 17s 99c	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
+30% 19s 49c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 22s 48c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at13s 83ceach · −8% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 2s 24c

Chance it sells93%~2.15h on the AH

Expected value12s 94c−2s more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 36% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.289, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 37% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Tailoring: 4× Bolt of Silk Cloth 8s 44c, 2× Blue Dye 49c, 3× Fine Thread 94c

Materials 37s 56c → sells for 14s 24c: −23s 32c per craft

Can craft it: Ezrealith