FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.3 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Elixir of Giant Growth

Consumable · Elixirs · item 6662 · vendor 95c

own demand model

Floor5s 30ccheapest 5s 22c

Median5s 30cby quantity

Listed908 listings

Sold / day995avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	34	37%	70%	100%	100%	100%
floor to +10%	25	38%	100%	100%	100%	100%
+10% to +30%	5	60%	60%	60%	60%	60%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 45 sales out of 64 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 4s 77c	70%	99%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 5s 4c	64%	98%	100%	100%	100%
+0% 5s 30c	58%	97%	99%	99%	99%
+5% 5s 56c	53%	95%	99%	99%	99%
+10% 5s 83c	48%	93%	98%	98%	98%
+20% 6s 36c	40%	86%	95%	95%	95%
+30% 6s 89c	33%	79%	90%	90%	90%
+50% 7s 95c	23%	64%	78%	78%	78%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -3.03 ± 4.87: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.75. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at9s 33ceach · +76% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 14c

Chance it sells61%~6.94h on the AH

Expected value7s 5c6s 10c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 59% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.411, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 90% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Alchemy: 1× Deviate Fish 3s 19c, 1× Earthroot 1s 64c, 1× Empty Vial 6c

Materials 4s 89c → sells for 5s 3c: 14c per craft

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Forceful Heavy Armor Kit Leatherworking	2	−3s 7c