Deviate Fish
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 6522 · vendor 4c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 86 | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| floor to +10% | 57 | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| +10% to +30% | 19 | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 74 sales out of 163 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2s 49c | 83% | 83% | 83% | 83% | 83% |
| −5% 2s 63c | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| +0% 2s 77c | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| +5% 2s 91c | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| +10% 3s 5c | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +20% 3s 32c | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% |
| +30% 3s 60c | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| +50% 4s 16c | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -6.99 ± 1.65: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.51. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 29% of listed quantity across 32 postings (HHI 0.122, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 37% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Elixir of Giant Growth Alchemy |
1 | 43c |
 Savory Deviate Delight Cooking |
1 | 1c |
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