Savory Deviate Delight
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 6657 · vendor 5c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 117 | 21% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 54 | 32% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 82 sales out of 177 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2s 88c | 68% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 3s 4c | 42% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 3s 20c | 23% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| +5% 3s 36c | 13% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| +10% 3s 52c | 7% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
| +20% 3s 84c | 2% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +30% 4s 16c | 1% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| +50% 4s 80c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -13.94 ± 4.86: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.26. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 38% of listed quantity across 20 postings (HHI 0.224, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 46% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 3s 13c | 25s | 10 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 3s 13c | 25s | 10 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 3s 11c | 25s | 10 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Cooking: 1× 
Deviate Fish 4s 85c, 1× 
Mild Spices 6c
Materials 4s 91c → sells for 3s 4c: −1s 87c per craft
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