Forceful Heavy Armor Kit
Consumable · Permanent · item 252453
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 110 | 78% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 42 sales out of 155 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 37s 77c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 39s 87c | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 41s 97c | 76% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +5% 44s 7c | 42% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% 46s 17c | 19% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +20% 50s 36c | 4% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| +30% 54s 56c | 1% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| +50% 62s 96c | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 8.86: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you. No vendor price known for this item, so the deposit is 0.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 28 postings (HHI 0.082, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 31% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 29s 98c | 64s 97c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 29s 80c | 64s 97c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 29s 96c | 66s 97c | 6 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 29s 96c | 66s 97c | 6 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 29s 98c | 66s 97c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 29s 80c | 66s 97c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 29s 98c | 66s 98c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 29s 80c | 66s 98c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 29s 96c | 66s 98c | 6 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 29s 98c | 66s 98c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Leatherworking: 1× Heavy Armor Kit 6s 50c, 2× 
Soul Dust 4s 57c, 2× 
Elixir of Giant Growth 6s 22c
Materials 28s 8c → sells for 39s 87c: 11s 79c per craft
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