FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Heavy Armor Kit

Consumable · Permanent · item 4265 · vendor 6s 50c

own demand model

Floor6s 48ccheapest 6s 48c

Median6s 50cby quantity

Listed610141 listings

Sold / day367avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	150	62%	74%	74%	74%	74%
floor to +10%	55	0%	19%	19%	19%	19%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 71 sales out of 207 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 5s 83c	98%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 6s 16c	74%	89%	89%	89%	89%
+0% 6s 48c	38%	55%	55%	55%	55%
+5% 6s 80c	17%	26%	26%	26%	26%
+10% 7s 13c	7%	11%	11%	11%	11%
+20% 7s 78c	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+30% 8s 42c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 9s 72c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 14.25: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at6s 9ceach · −6% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 97c

Chance it sells93%~2.11h on the AH

Expected value5s 69c−81c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 23% of listed quantity across 23 postings (HHI 0.146, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 26% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	6s 50c	8s 50c	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	6s 50c	8s 50c	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	6s 50c	8s 50c	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	6s 50c	8s 50c	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	6s 50c	8s 50c	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	6s 48c	8s 50c	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	6s 48c	8s 50c	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	6s 48c	8s 50c	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	6s 48c	8s 50c	2
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	6s 48c	8s 50c	2

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Leatherworking: 5× Heavy Leather 2s 10c, 1× Fine Thread 94c

Materials 11s 44c → sells for 6s 15c: −5s 29c per craft

Can craft it: John, Nethiri

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Forceful Heavy Armor Kit Leatherworking	1	−1s 47c
Mystic Heavy Armor Kit Leatherworking	1	−6s 3c