FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Soul Dust

Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 11083 · vendor 1c

own demand model

Floor4s 60ccheapest 4s 60c

Median4s 79cby quantity

Listed2,658117 listings

Sold / day2,225avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	155	54%	61%	61%	61%	61%
floor to +10%	46	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+10% to +30%	39	20%	27%	27%	27%	27%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 98 sales out of 243 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 4s 14c	76%	85%	85%	85%	85%
−5% 4s 37c	59%	70%	70%	70%	70%
+0% 4s 60c	44%	54%	54%	54%	54%
+5% 4s 83c	32%	40%	40%	40%	40%
+10% 5s 6c	23%	29%	29%	29%	29%
+20% 5s 52c	12%	15%	15%	15%	15%
+30% 5s 98c	6%	8%	8%	8%	8%
+50% 6s 90c	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -8.54 ± 1.81: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.44. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at4s 83ceach · +5% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells40%~7.82h on the AH

Expected value4s 16c4s 15c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 22% of listed quantity across 46 postings (HHI 0.094, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 42% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 70c	5s 89c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 69c	5s 89c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 55c	5s 89c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 55c	5s 89c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 19c	5s 99c	13
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4s 55c	8s 99c	10

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Minor Mana Oil Enchanting	1	3s 52c
Forceful Heavy Armor Kit Leatherworking	2	−1s 47c
Mystic Heavy Armor Kit Leatherworking	2	−6s 3c
Runed Golden Rod Enchanting	1	–
Elixir of Coalesced Regret Alchemy	1	–
Soulstaff Enchanting	6	–
Orb of Souls Enchanting	2	–