Minor Mana Oil
Consumable · Other · item 20745 · vendor 5s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 260 | 25% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 6 | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 98 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 26 sales out of 364 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 12s 37c | 32% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| −5% 13s 5c | 26% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| +0% 13s 74c | 22% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| +5% 14s 43c | 19% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| +10% 15s 11c | 16% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
| +20% 16s 49c | 11% | 69% | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| +30% 17s 86c | 8% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| +50% 20s 61c | 5% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -4.02 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.68. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 24% of listed quantity across 15 postings (HHI 0.117, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 44% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5s 45c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5s 45c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5s 45c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5s 45c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5s 45c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5s 45c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5s 45c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5s 45c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5s 45c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 5s 45c | 15s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Enchanting: 1× 
Soul Dust 4s 60c, 2× 
Maple Seed 2s 22c, 1× 
Leaded Vial 49c
Materials 9s 53c → sells for 13s 5c: 3s 52c per craft
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