FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Mechanical Dragonling

Armor · Miscellaneous · item 4396 · vendor 60s

no demand model yet

Floor2g 45scheapest 2g 45s

Median2g 50sby quantity

Listed2020 listings

Sold / day–avg of last 0 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	23	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 0 sales out of 23 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Needs tracked sales to fit a model.

Best posting price

Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 40% of listed quantity across 5 postings (HHI 0.265, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 53% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.