Hillman's Shoulders
Armor · Leather · item 4251 · vendor 6s 59c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 14 | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% |
| floor to +10% | 86 | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| +10% to +30% | 195 | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| over +30% | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 134 sales out of 303 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 8s 50c | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| −5% 8s 97c | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| +0% 9s 44c | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +5% 9s 91c | 69% | 69% | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| +10% 10s 38c | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| +20% 11s 33c | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| +30% 12s 27c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +50% 14s 16c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 7.94 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 2.13. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 25% of listed quantity across 19 postings (HHI 0.152, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 49% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 9s | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 9s | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 9s | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 99c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 99c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 99c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 99c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 99c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 99c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 99c | 20s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Leatherworking: 1× 
Cured Medium Hide 4s 68c, 4× 
Medium Leather 99c, 1× 
Fine Thread 94c
Materials 9s 58c → sells for 8s 96c: −62c per craft
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