Cured Medium Hide
Trade Goods · Leather · item 4233 · vendor 2s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 60 | 8% | 74% | 74% | 74% | 74% |
| floor to +10% | 5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 43 sales out of 66 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 4s 21c | 9% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| −5% 4s 45c | 10% | 61% | 61% | 61% | 61% |
| +0% 4s 68c | 12% | 65% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| +5% 4s 91c | 13% | 69% | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| +10% 5s 15c | 14% | 73% | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| +20% 5s 62c | 18% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| +30% 6s 8c | 21% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| +50% 7s 2c | 28% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 2.41 ± 3.64: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.26. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 17% of listed quantity across 28 postings (HHI 0.098, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 23% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Leatherworking: 1× 
Medium Hide 3s 10c, 1× 
Salt 69c
Materials 3s 79c → sells for 4s 44c: 65c per craft
Used to make
Hillman's Shoulders
Dark Leather Gloves
Toughened Leather Gloves
Dark Leather BeltAlerts for this item
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