Cured Light Hide
Trade Goods · Leather · item 4231 · vendor 1s 10c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 54 | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% |
| over +30% | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 36 sales out of 64 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 12c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 1s 19c | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| +0% 1s 25c | 64% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| +5% 1s 31c | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +10% 1s 38c | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| +20% 1s 50c | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +30% 1s 62c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 1s 88c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 17.00: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 19% of listed quantity across 18 postings (HHI 0.117, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 29% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 24c | 1s 65c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 24c | 1s 65c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 24c | 50s 24c | 10 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Leatherworking: 1× 
Light Hide 65c, 1× 
Salt 69c
Materials 1s 34c → sells for 1s 18c: −16c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Cloudy Gustwoven Harness Leatherworking | 1 | 31s 23c |
| Azure Windraveled Jerkin Leatherworking | 1 | 26s 49c |
| Black Whelp Tunic Leatherworking | 1 | 21s 73c |
| Cloudy Windraveled Jerkin Leatherworking | 1 | 16s 99c |
 Fine Leather Gloves Leatherworking |
1 | 1s 19c |
| Light Leather Reagent Bag Leatherworking | 1 | 38c |
 Hillman's Leather Vest Leatherworking |
2 | −1s 94c |
 Fine Leather Tunic Leatherworking |
3 | −2s 33c |
 Embossed Leather Pants Leatherworking |
1 | −2s 71c |
 Murloc Scale Breastplate Leatherworking |
1 | −3s 94c |
| Light Leather Pants Leatherworking |
1 | −4s 2c |
 Deviate Scale Cloak Leatherworking |
1 | −6s 20c |
| Toughened Leather Armor Leatherworking |
2 | −7s 26c |
| Moonglow Vest Leatherworking |
1 | – |
| Wisdom's Leather Pants Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Stormrider's Leather Pants Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Totemic Leather Pants Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Defender's Leather Pants Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Trapper's Leather Pants Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Brawler's Leather Pants Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Wisdom's Leather Boots Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Stormrider's Leather Boots Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Totemic Leather Boots Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Defender's Leather Boots Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Trapper's Leather Boots Leatherworking | 4 | – |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.