Light Hide
Trade Goods · Leather · item 783 · vendor 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 79 | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| floor to +10% | 47 | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| +10% to +30% | 30 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 52 sales out of 161 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 58c | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| −5% 62c | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| +0% 65c | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| +5% 68c | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| +10% 72c | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| +20% 78c | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +30% 84c | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| +50% 98c | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -6.97 ± 1.95: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.51. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 28% of listed quantity across 57 postings (HHI 0.112, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 67% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 74c | 1s 55c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 74c | 1s 55c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 74c | 1s 55c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 73c | 1s 55c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 73c | 1s 55c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 73c | 1s 55c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 73c | 1s 55c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 74c | 1s | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 74c | 1s | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 74c | 1s | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Cured Light Hide Leatherworking |
1 | −16c |
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