Gold Bar
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 3577 · vendor 6s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 117 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| floor to +10% | 69 | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 78 sales out of 190 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 7s 83c | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| −5% 8s 26c | 69% | 69% | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| +0% 8s 70c | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| +5% 9s 14c | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| +10% 9s 57c | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| +20% 10s 44c | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +30% 11s 31c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 13s 5c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -15.50 ± 5.33: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.23. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 12% of listed quantity across 48 postings (HHI 0.059, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 24% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s | 12s 89c | 12 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s | 11s 50c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s | 11s 50c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s | 11s 50c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s | 11s 50c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s | 11s 50c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s | 11s 50c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s | 11s 50c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s | 11s 50c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s | 11s 50c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Mining: 1× 
Gold Ore 8s 78c
Materials 8s 78c → sells for 8s 26c: −52c per craft
Alchemy: 1× 
Iron Bar 2s 86c
Materials 2s 86c → sells for 8s 26c: 5s 40c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Brightcloth Robe Tailoring |
2 | 1g 88s |
 Inlaid Mithril Cylinder Blacksmithing |
1 | 76s 50c |
 Hard Gold Gauntlet Blacksmithing |
8 | 46s 11c |
 Hard Gold Boots Blacksmithing |
6 | 44s 58c |
 Massive Iron Axe Blacksmithing |
4 | 22s 91c |
 Hard Gold Bracers Blacksmithing |
6 | 13s 72c |
 Gold Power Core Engineering |
1 | 2s 18c |
 Searing Golden Blade Blacksmithing |
4 | −1s 63c |
 Golden Scale Coif Blacksmithing |
2 | −2s 83c |
 Golden Rod Blacksmithing |
1 | −3s 22c |
 Golden Scale Leggings Blacksmithing |
2 | −11s 34c |
 Golden Skeleton Key Blacksmithing |
1 | −12s 99c |
 Golden Scale Shoulders Blacksmithing |
2 | −13s 60c |
 Brightcloth Gloves Tailoring |
2 | −14s 25c |
 Brightcloth Cloak Tailoring |
2 | −19s 14c |
 Golden Iron Destroyer Blacksmithing |
4 | −21s 20c |
 Hard Gold Pauldrons Blacksmithing |
8 | −29s 88c |
 Hard Gold Cuirass Blacksmithing |
12 | −34s 83c |
 Golden Scale Boots Blacksmithing |
4 | −48s 73c |
| Golden Scale Cuirass Blacksmithing |
2 | −76s 71c |
| Gilded Handwraps Tailoring |
4 | −85s 47c |
| Golden Scale Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Runic Plate Shoulders Blacksmithing |
6 | – |
 Whitesoul Helm Blacksmithing |
6 | – |
 Inlaid Thorium Hammer Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
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