Golden Skeleton Key
Consumable · Other · item 15870 · vendor 3s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 19 | 21% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 11 sales out of 19 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Best posting price
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 55% of listed quantity across 4 postings (HHI 0.42, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 55% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Blacksmithing: 1× 
Gold Bar 8s 89c, 1× 
Heavy Grinding Stone 10s 60c
Materials 19s 49c → sells for 5s 70c: −13s 79c per craft
Can craft it: Didgood
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