Silver Bar
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 2842 · vendor 1s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 277 | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| floor to +10% | 20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 33 sales out of 309 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2s 79c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| −5% 2s 94c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +0% 3s 10c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +5% 3s 26c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +10% 3s 41c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +20% 3s 72c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +30% 4s 3c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 4s 65c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 3.37: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 16% of listed quantity across 64 postings (HHI 0.066, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 59% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3s 27c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3s 27c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3s 27c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3s 15c | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3s | 15s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3s 27c | 7s 50c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3s 27c | 7s 50c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 3s 24c | 4s 10c | 6 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 3s 24c | 4s 10c | 6 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 3s 23c | 4s 10c | 6 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Silver OreUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Solid Iron Maul Blacksmithing |
4 | 24s 3c |
| Sterling Silver Gauntlet Blacksmithing | 6 | 22s 80c |
| Iron Fists Blacksmithing | 2 | 7s 47c |
| Rock Garden Mining | 1 | 1s 53c |
 Silver Rod Blacksmithing |
1 | 1c |
 Silver Contact Engineering |
1 | −1s 87c |
 Silver Skeleton Key Blacksmithing |
1 | −2s 21c |
 Thick War Axe Blacksmithing |
2 | −3s 18c |
 Silvered Bronze Leggings Blacksmithing |
4 | −3s 46c |
 Silvered Bronze Breastplate Blacksmithing |
2 | −4s 47c |
 Silvered Bronze Shoulders Blacksmithing |
2 | −5s 62c |
 Silvered Bronze Boots Blacksmithing |
1 | −7s 34c |
| Sterling Silver Boots Blacksmithing | 6 | −9s 58c |
 Silvered Bronze Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
1 | −11s 25c |
 Shining Silver Breastplate Blacksmithing |
4 | −20s 45c |
 Silver-plated Shotgun Engineering |
3 | −29s 61c |
 Runic Plate Boots Blacksmithing |
10 | – |
| Mantle of the Second War Blacksmithing | 4 | – |
| Sterling Silver Leggings Blacksmithing | 10 | – |
| Sterling Silver Shoulders Blacksmithing | 6 | – |
| Sterling Silver Breastplate Blacksmithing | 12 | – |
| Veteran's Silvered Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 5 | – |
| Guard's Silvered Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 5 | – |
| Protector's Silvered Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 5 | – |
| Acolyte's Silvered Chain Shirt Blacksmithing | 5 | – |
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