Dark Leather Cloak
Armor · Cloth · item 2316 · vendor 4s 8c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 58 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 42 | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| over +30% | 17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 61 sales out of 117 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 4s 39c | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| −5% 4s 64c | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% |
| +0% 4s 88c | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| +5% 5s 12c | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| +10% 5s 37c | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| +20% 5s 86c | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| +30% 6s 34c | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| +50% 7s 32c | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.66 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.58. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 24% of listed quantity across 18 postings (HHI 0.146, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 31% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 90c | 9s 60c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 90c | 9s 60c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 90c | 9s 60c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 90c | 9s 60c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 90c | 9s 60c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 90c | 9s 60c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 90c | 9s 60c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 90c | 9s 60c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 90c | 9s 60c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 90c | 9s 60c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Leatherworking: 8× 
Medium Leather 99c, 1× 
Fine Thread 94c, 1× 
Gray Dye 3s 99c
Materials 12s 85c → sells for 4s 63c: −8s 22c per craft
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