Consumable · Elixirs · item 21546 · vendor 35c
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 45 | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 2 sales out of 45 tracked listings.
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
The biggest single posting holds 24% of listed quantity across 15 postings (HHI 0.121, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 68% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Alchemy: 3×
Fire Oil 73c, 3×
Firebloom 11s 54c, 1×
Crystal Vial 6s 70c
Materials 43s 51c → sells for 42s 18c: −1s 33c per craft
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