Firebloom
Trade Goods · Herb · item 4625 · vendor 2s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 162 | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 51 sales out of 181 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 10s 38c | 57% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| −5% 10s 95c | 44% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| +0% 11s 53c | 34% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| +5% 12s 11c | 26% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| +10% 12s 68c | 19% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
| +20% 13s 84c | 11% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +30% 14s 99c | 7% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +50% 17s 30c | 2% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -6.87 ± 1.63: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.52. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 26% of listed quantity across 15 postings (HHI 0.142, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 28% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 11s 55c | 30s | 7 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 11s 54c | 22s | 15 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Potion of Elemental Purging Alchemy |
2 | 2g 32s |
 Greater Frenzy Potion Alchemy |
3 | 51s 27c |
 Dragonfire Potion Alchemy |
2 | 26s 80c |
 Mender's Potion Alchemy |
2 | 10s 1c |
 Elixir of Holy Power Alchemy |
3 | 67c |
 Cleric's Elixir Alchemy |
2 | −6c |
 Goblin Rocket Fuel Alchemy |
1 | −1s 63c |
 Oil of Immolation Alchemy |
1 | −3s 54c |
 Superior Frenzy Potion Alchemy |
2 | −8s 78c |
 Wizard Oil Enchanting |
2 | −1g 64s |
 Philosopher's Stone Alchemy |
4 | – |
 Brilliant Wizard Oil Enchanting |
3 | – |
 Festival Dress Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Festival Suit Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Conductive Shield Coating Enchanting |
1 | – |
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