Thorium Shield Spike
Consumable · Permanent · item 12645 · vendor 5s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 13 | 11% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 3 sales out of 13 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Best posting price
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 42% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.289, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 64% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Blacksmithing: 4× 
Thorium Bar 20s 42c, 4× 
Dense Grinding Stone 23s 97c, 2× 
Essence of Earth 2g 65s
Materials 7g 9s → sells for 16g 14s: 9g 5s per craft
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