Dream Dust
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 11176 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 196 | 26% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| floor to +10% | 68 | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| +10% to +30% | 23 | 39% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| over +30% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 57 sales out of 294 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 26s 72c | 23% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| −5% 28s 21c | 22% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| +0% 29s 69c | 21% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| +5% 31s 17c | 20% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| +10% 32s 66c | 19% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| +20% 35s 63c | 17% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| +30% 38s 60c | 16% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| +50% 44s 54c | 14% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.11 ± 1.51: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.90. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 28% of listed quantity across 39 postings (HHI 0.109, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 33% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 26s 58c | 40s 78c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 25s | 40s 78c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 31s | 40s 77c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 30s 98c | 40s 78c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 30s 98c | 40s 78c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 30s 96c | 40s 78c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 31s 5c | 40s 77c | 12 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 31s 99c | 40s 78c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 31s 99c | 40s 78c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 31s 99c | 40s 77c | 3 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Wizardweave Turban Tailoring |
4 | 4g 90s |
 Twisted Nether Wand Enchanting |
1 | 70s 49c |
 Mystic Rugged Armor Kit Leatherworking |
2 | 68s 65c |
 Lesser Eternal Wand Enchanting |
1 | 43s 28c |
 Lesser Mana Oil Enchanting |
1 | −7s 68c |
 Enchanted Thorium Enchanting |
3 | −46s 34c |
| Forceful Rugged Armor Kit Leatherworking |
2 | −1g 78s |
 Greater Arcane Protection Potion Alchemy |
1 | – |
 Wizardweave Leggings Tailoring |
1 | – |
 Wizardweave Robe Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Sigil of Living Dreams Enchanting |
5 | – |
 Talons of Wrath Enchanting |
6 | – |
 Libram of Invocation Enchanting |
4 | – |
 Totem of Ancestral Protection Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Radiant Staff Enchanting |
6 | – |
 Dreamstaff Enchanting |
8 | – |
 Truesilver Conduit Enchanting |
3 | – |
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