FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.3 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Nightscape Cloak

Armor · Cloth · item 8195 · vendor 52s 63c

own demand model

Floor78s 97ccheapest 78s 96c

Median78s 98cby quantity

Listed3636 listings

Sold / day46avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	86	24%	100%	100%	100%	100%
floor to +10%	40	6%	6%	6%	6%	6%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 35 sales out of 126 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 71s 7c	73%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 75s 2c	36%	97%	97%	97%	97%
+0% 78s 97c	15%	72%	72%	72%	72%
+5% 82s 92c	6%	38%	38%	38%	38%
+10% 86s 87c	2%	17%	17%	17%	17%
+20% 94s 76c	0%	3%	3%	3%	3%
+30% 1g 2s	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%
+50% 1g 18s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at77s 5ceach · −2% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 7s 89c

Chance it sells87%~3.6h on the AH

Expected value71s 24c18s 61c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 36% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.247, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 36% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Leatherworking: 12× Thick Leather 5s 68c, 4× Silken Thread 5s 17c

Materials 88s 84c → sells for 75s 2c: −13s 82c per craft