FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Nightscape Headband

Armor · Leather · item 8176 · vendor 29s 22c

own demand model

Floor36scheapest 36s

Median37s 50cby quantity

Listed182182 listings

Sold / day101avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	201	27%	29%	29%	29%	29%
floor to +10%	89	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 61 sales out of 291 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 32s 40c	66%	71%	71%	71%	71%
−5% 34s 20c	31%	34%	34%	34%	34%
+0% 36s	12%	14%	14%	14%	14%
+5% 37s 80c	5%	6%	6%	6%	6%
+10% 39s 60c	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+20% 43s 20c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+30% 46s 80c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 54s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at32s 3ceach · −11% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 4s 38c

Chance it sells79%~3.54h on the AH

Expected value29s 49c27c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 30% of listed quantity across 11 postings (HHI 0.192, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 48% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	37s 50c	78s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	37s 50c	78s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	36s	78s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	36s	78s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	36s	78s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	36s	78s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	36s	78s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	36s	78s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	36s	78s	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	36s	78s	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Leatherworking: 5× Thick Leather 5s 89c, 2× Silken Thread 4s 50c

Materials 38s 45c → sells for 34s 20c: −4s 25c per craft