FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Bronze Greatsword

Weapon · Sword · item 7957 · vendor 22s 5c

own demand model

Floor60scheapest 60s

Median65s 99cby quantity

Listed107107 listings

Sold / day39avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	43	43%	100%	100%	100%	100%
floor to +10%	32	16%	16%	16%	16%	16%
over +30%	5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 27 sales out of 80 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 54s	68%	98%	98%	98%	98%
−5% 57s	39%	81%	81%	81%	81%
+0% 60s	20%	53%	53%	53%	53%
+5% 63s	10%	30%	30%	30%	30%
+10% 66s	5%	16%	16%	16%	16%
+20% 72s	1%	4%	4%	4%	4%
+30% 78s	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%
+50% 90s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -15.50 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.23. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at57s 47ceach · −4% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 3s 30c

Chance it sells77%~4.37h on the AH

Expected value52s 88c30s 83c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 22% of listed quantity across 13 postings (HHI 0.134, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 61% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Blacksmithing: 12× Bronze Bar 1s 84c, 2× Strong Flux 20s, 2× Medium Leather 98c

Materials 64s 4c → sells for 57s: −7s 4c per craft

Can craft it: Didgood