FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Bronze Warhammer

Weapon · Mace · item 7956 · vendor 15s 44c

own demand model

Floor15s 70ccheapest 15s 60c

Median15s 79cby quantity

Listed257257 listings

Sold / day22avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorover +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	116	22%	22%	22%	22%	22%
over +30%	30	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 22 sales out of 146 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 14s 13c	83%	83%	83%	83%	83%
−5% 14s 92c	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%
+0% 15s 70c	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%
+5% 16s 48c	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%
+10% 17s 27c	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%
+20% 18s 84c	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
+30% 20s 41c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 23s 55c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at13s 96ceach · −11% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 2s 31c

Chance it sells89%~2.39h on the AH

Expected value13s 1c−2s 43c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 20% of listed quantity across 15 postings (HHI 0.117, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 24% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15s 70c	70s 70c	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15s 70c	70s 70c	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15s 70c	70s 70c	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15s 70c	70s 70c	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15s 70c	70s 70c	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15s 70c	70s 70c	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15s 70c	70s 70c	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15s 70c	70s 70c	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15s 70c	70s 70c	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15s 70c	70s 70c	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Blacksmithing: 8× Bronze Bar 1s 84c, 1× Strong Flux 20s, 1× Medium Leather 98c

Materials 35s 70c → sells for 14s 91c: −20s 79c per craft

Can craft it: Didgood