Essence of Water
Trade Goods · Elemental · item 7080 · vendor 4s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 65 | 40% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 22 sales out of 66 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 3g 58s | 78% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| −5% 3g 78s | 45% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| +0% 3g 97s | 22% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| +5% 4g 17s | 10% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| +10% 4g 37s | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +20% 4g 77s | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +30% 5g 17s | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 5g 96s | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -16.98 ± 15.13: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.20. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 29% of listed quantity across 20 postings (HHI 0.147, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 34% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 1× 
Essence of Earth 2g 65s
Materials 2g 65s → sells for 3g 78s: 1g 12s per craft
Alchemy: 1× 
Essence of Undeath 36s 96c
Materials 36s 96c → sells for 3g 78s: 3g 41s per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Hide of the Wild Leatherworking |
10 | 72g 66s |
 Robe of Winter Night Tailoring |
4 | 43g 64s |
 Living Crown Leatherworking |
20 | 7g 47s |
 Frostweave Gloves Tailoring |
1 | 2g 16s |
 Transmute: Water to Air Alchemy |
1 | 96s 96c |
| Transmute: Water to Undeath Alchemy |
1 | −3g 62s |
 Dawnbringer Shoulders Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Enchanted Thorium Leggings Blacksmithing |
6 | – |
 Enchanted Thorium Breastplate Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Frostguard Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Alchemist's Stone Alchemy |
8 | – |
 Frostweave Pants Tailoring |
1 | – |
 Robe of the Archmage Tailoring |
8 | – |
 Stormshroud Pants Leatherworking |
2 | – |
 Stormshroud Armor Leatherworking |
3 | – |
 Stormshroud Shoulders Leatherworking |
3 | – |
 Belt of the Archmage Tailoring |
10 | – |
 Hyper-Radiant Flame Reflector Engineering |
6 | – |
 Dawn Treaders Leatherworking |
4 | – |
| Stormshroud Gloves Leatherworking |
4 | – |
 Glacial Cloak Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Glacial Gloves Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Glacial Vest Tailoring |
6 | – |
 Glacial Wrists Tailoring |
2 | – |
| Icy Scale Bracers Leatherworking |
2 | – |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.