Iron Buckle
Trade Goods · Parts · item 7071 · vendor 1s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 40 | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| floor to +10% | 27 | 37% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 44 sales out of 69 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 22c | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 1s 28c | 87% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 1s 35c | 66% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| +5% 1s 42c | 44% | 84% | 84% | 84% | 84% |
| +10% 1s 48c | 27% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| +20% 1s 62c | 10% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| +30% 1s 76c | 4% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| +50% 2s 2c | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -12.65 ± 4.32: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.30. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 22% of listed quantity across 22 postings (HHI 0.095, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 24% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Blacksmithing: 1× 
Iron Bar 2s 73c
Materials 2s 73c → sells for 2s 56c: −17c per craft
Can craft it: Didgood
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Star Belt Tailoring |
1 | 54s 3c |
 Earthen Silk Belt Tailoring |
1 | 33s 60c |
 Guardian Belt Leatherworking |
1 | 14s 53c |
 Barbaric Harness Leatherworking |
1 | 9s 9c |
 Barbaric Belt Leatherworking |
1 | 2s 12c |
 Spider Belt Tailoring |
1 | −7s 36c |
 Green Leather Belt Leatherworking |
1 | −13s 94c |
| Dusky Belt Leatherworking |
1 | −18s 92c |
 Crimson Silk Belt Tailoring |
1 | −19s 74c |
 Azure Silk Belt Tailoring |
1 | −29s 82c |
 Earthen Silk Belt Tailoring |
1 | – |
 Crimson Silk Belt Tailoring |
1 | – |
 Guardian Belt Leatherworking |
1 | – |
 Blessed Plate Belt Blacksmithing |
1 | – |
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