FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Silk Headband

Armor · Cloth · item 7050 · vendor 9s 99c

own demand model

Floor13s 90ccheapest 13s 90c

Median16s 79cby quantity

Listed121121 listings

Sold / day27avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	128	12%	24%	24%	24%	24%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 27 sales out of 132 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 12s 51c	13%	26%	26%	26%	26%
−5% 13s 20c	12%	23%	23%	23%	23%
+0% 13s 90c	10%	21%	21%	21%	21%
+5% 14s 60c	9%	19%	19%	19%	19%
+10% 15s 29c	8%	17%	17%	17%	17%
+20% 16s 68c	6%	14%	14%	14%	14%
+30% 18s 7c	5%	11%	11%	11%	11%
+50% 20s 85c	4%	8%	8%	8%	8%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -2.55 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.78. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at17s 23ceach · +24% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1s 49c

Chance it sells13%~10.71h on the AH

Expected value10s 99c1s more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 30% of listed quantity across 13 postings (HHI 0.15, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 38% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Tailoring: 3× Bolt of Silk Cloth 8s 42c, 2× Fine Thread 94c

Materials 27s 14c → sells for 13s 20c: −13s 94c per craft