Blackmouth Oil
Trade Goods · Other · item 6370 · vendor 10c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 57 | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| floor to +10% | 37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 23 sales out of 94 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 4s 68c | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
| −5% 4s 94c | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| +0% 5s 20c | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| +5% 5s 46c | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +10% 5s 72c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +20% 6s 24c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +30% 6s 76c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 7s 80c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 5.43: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 28% of listed quantity across 50 postings (HHI 0.102, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 41% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 2× 
Oily Blackmouth 2s 34c, 1× 
Empty Vial 6c
Materials 4s 74c → sells for 4s 94c: 20c per craft
Can craft it: Mister
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Draught of Water Walking Alchemy |
1 | 19s 85c |
 Free Action Potion Alchemy |
2 | 1s 24c |
 Draught of Water Breathing Alchemy |
2 | −66c |
 Swim Speed Potion Alchemy |
1 | −7s 37c |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.