FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.1 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Free Action Potion

Consumable · Potions · item 5634 · vendor 75c

own demand model

Floor16s 30ccheapest 16s 25c

Median17sby quantity

Listed1,655116 listings

Sold / day524avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	47	60%	60%	60%	60%	60%
floor to +10%	27	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+10% to +30%	5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 28 sales out of 79 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 14s 67c	99%	99%	99%	99%	99%
−5% 15s 48c	82%	82%	82%	82%	82%
+0% 16s 30c	46%	46%	46%	46%	46%
+5% 17s 12c	21%	21%	21%	21%	21%
+10% 17s 93c	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%
+20% 19s 56c	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+30% 21s 19c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 24s 45c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 17.47: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at15s 90ceach · −2% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 11c

Chance it sells63%~5.19h on the AH

Expected value14s 56c13s 81c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 21% of listed quantity across 43 postings (HHI 0.09, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 42% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Alchemy: 2× Blackmouth Oil 5s 20c, 1× Stranglekelp 3s 34c, 1× Leaded Vial 50c

Materials 14s 24c → sells for 15s 48c: 1s 24c per craft