FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Hillman's Leather Gloves

Armor · Leather · item 4247 · vendor 10s 49c

own demand model

Floor10s 44ccheapest 10s 44c

Median10s 49cby quantity

Listed261261 listings

Sold / day89avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	209	50%	62%	62%	62%	62%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 89 sales out of 211 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 9s 40c	98%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 9s 92c	74%	86%	86%	86%	86%
+0% 10s 44c	38%	51%	51%	51%	51%
+5% 10s 96c	17%	24%	24%	24%	24%
+10% 11s 48c	7%	10%	10%	10%	10%
+20% 12s 53c	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+30% 13s 57c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 15s 66c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at9s 81ceach · −6% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1s 57c

Chance it sells91%~2.39h on the AH

Expected value9s 13c−1s 36c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 50% of listed quantity across 8 postings (HHI 0.313, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 52% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Leatherworking: 14× Medium Leather 97c, 4× Fine Thread 94c

Materials 17s 34c → sells for 9s 91c: −7s 43c per craft

Can craft it: John, Nethiri