Green Woolen Bag
Container · Bag · item 4241 · vendor 4s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 76 | 32% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 36 | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 60 sales out of 117 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 20s 70c | 88% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 21s 85c | 52% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 23s | 23% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| +5% 24s 15c | 9% | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% |
| +10% 25s 30c | 4% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| +20% 27s 60c | 1% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +30% 29s 90c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 34s 50c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 63% of listed quantity across 4 postings (HHI 0.448, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 73% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 23s | 50s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 22s 88c | 50s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 22s 88c | 50s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 22s 88c | 50s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 22s 88c | 50s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 22s 88c | 50s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 22s 88c | 50s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 22s 88c | 50s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 22s 39c | 50s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 22s 39c | 50s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Tailoring: 5× 
Bolt of Woolen Cloth 4s 35c, 1× 
Green Dye 1s 35c, 1× 
Fine Thread 94c
Materials 24s 4c → sells for 21s 85c: −2s 19c per craft
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