Cured Heavy Hide
Trade Goods · Leather · item 4236 · vendor 2s 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 97 | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 28 sales out of 99 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 15s 16c | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| −5% 16s 1c | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| +0% 16s 85c | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| +5% 17s 69c | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| +10% 18s 54c | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| +20% 20s 22c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +30% 21s 90c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 25s 28c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 11.69: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 10% of listed quantity across 39 postings (HHI 0.051, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 26% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Leatherworking: 1× 
Heavy Hide 12s 70c, 3× 
Salt 69c
Materials 14s 77c → sells for 16s: 1s 23c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Cloudy Gustwoven Spaulders Leatherworking | 2 | 18g 17s |
| Cloudy Windraveled Cover Leatherworking | 3 | 3g 20s |
| Barbaric Bracers Leatherworking | 2 | 75s 2c |
 Comfortable Leather Hat Leatherworking |
2 | 45s 59c |
| Shadowskin Gloves Leatherworking | 2 | 15s 72c |
 Guardian Belt Leatherworking |
2 | 10s 65c |
 Thick Murloc Armor Leatherworking |
1 | 6s 18c |
 Barbaric Belt Leatherworking |
2 | −2s 52c |
 Barbaric Shoulders Leatherworking |
1 | −12s 73c |
 Guardian Gloves Leatherworking |
1 | −13s 69c |
 Green Leather Belt Leatherworking |
1 | −17s 2c |
 Guardian Leather Bracers Leatherworking |
2 | −23s 84c |
 Green Leather Bracers Leatherworking |
2 | −31s 6c |
 Murloc Scale Bracers Leatherworking |
1 | −41s 96c |
 Guardian Armor Leatherworking |
2 | −44s 39c |
 Gem-studded Leather Belt Leatherworking |
4 | −67s 64c |
| Guardian Leather Bracers Leatherworking | 2 | – |
| Guardian Belt Leatherworking | 2 | – |
| Mender's Mail Bracers Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Skirmisher's Mail Bracers Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Skycaller's Mail Bracers Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Stalker's Mail Bracers Leatherworking | 4 | – |
| Mender's Mail Shoulders Leatherworking | 3 | – |
| Skirmisher's Mail Shoulders Leatherworking | 3 | – |
| Skycaller's Mail Shoulders Leatherworking | 3 | – |
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