Fadeleaf
Trade Goods · Herb · item 3818 · vendor 1s 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 162 | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| floor to +10% | 19 | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| +10% to +30% | 22 | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| over +30% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 57 sales out of 210 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 3s 89c | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| −5% 4s 10c | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| +0% 4s 32c | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| +5% 4s 54c | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +10% 4s 75c | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| +20% 5s 18c | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +30% 5s 62c | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| +50% 6s 48c | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.10 ± 1.43: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.90. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 17% of listed quantity across 37 postings (HHI 0.092, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 29% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 34c | 5s 76c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 34c | 5s 76c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 34c | 5s 76c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 34c | 5s 76c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 34c | 5s 63c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 34c | 5s 63c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 34c | 5s 63c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 22c | 5s 63c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 34c | 8s | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 34c | 8s | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Greater Frenzy Potion Alchemy |
2 | 51s 27c |
 Potion of Predatory Senses Alchemy |
2 | 29s 97c |
 Shadow Oil Alchemy |
4 | 9s 68c |
 Triage Tea Cooking |
2 | 7s 5c |
 Greater Spellblasting Potion Alchemy |
1 | 2s 53c |
 Catseye Draught Alchemy |
1 | 1s 26c |
 Lesser Invisibility Potion Alchemy |
1 | −2s 97c |
 Draught of Detect Lesser Invisibility Alchemy |
1 | −3s 36c |
 Frenzy Potion Alchemy |
2 | −3s 93c |
| Revealing Draught Alchemy | 3 | – |
Alerts for this item
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