Crab Cake
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 2683 · vendor 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 38 | 48% | 61% | 61% | 61% | 61% |
| +10% to +30% | 7 | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 24 sales out of 50 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 15c | 47% | 61% | 61% | 61% | 61% |
| −5% 1s 22c | 42% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +0% 1s 28c | 37% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| +5% 1s 34c | 33% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| +10% 1s 41c | 30% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| +20% 1s 54c | 24% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| +30% 1s 66c | 19% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| +50% 1s 92c | 13% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -3.00 ± 1.53: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.75. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 22% of listed quantity across 9 postings (HHI 0.149, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 49% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 1s | 1s 30c | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Cooking: 1× 
Crawler Meat 3s 19c, 1× 
Mild Spices 6c
Materials 3s 25c → sells for 1s 21c: −2s 4c per craft
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