FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.3 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Crawler Meat

Trade Goods · Cooking · item 2674 · vendor 12c

own demand model

Floor3s 19ccheapest 3s 15c

Median3s 19cby quantity

Listed1,314255 listings

Sold / day536avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	335	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%
floor to +10%	72	11%	11%	11%	11%	11%
+10% to +30%	18	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 128 sales out of 426 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 2s 87c	36%	36%	36%	36%	36%
−5% 3s 3c	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+0% 3s 19c	29%	29%	29%	29%	29%
+5% 3s 35c	26%	26%	26%	26%	26%
+10% 3s 51c	24%	24%	24%	24%	24%
+20% 3s 83c	19%	19%	19%	19%	19%
+30% 4s 15c	16%	16%	16%	16%	16%
+50% 4s 78c	11%	11%	11%	11%	11%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -2.59 ± 1.21: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.78. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at4s 10ceach · +29% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1c

Chance it sells16%~10.23h on the AH

Expected value2s 87c2s 75c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 51% of listed quantity across 35 postings (HHI 0.277, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 95% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	4s 15c	5s 90c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	4s 15c	5s 90c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	4s 15c	5s 90c	2

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Crab Cake Cooking	1	−2s 4c