FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.4 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Runecloth Reagent Bag

Container · Reagent Bag · item 254079 · vendor 2s

own demand model

Floor4g 59scheapest 4g 59s

Median4g 70sby quantity

Listed100100 listings

Sold / day67avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	177	35%	54%	54%	54%	54%
floor to +10%	68	34%	44%	44%	44%	44%
+10% to +30%	9	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 56 sales out of 254 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 4g 13s	98%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 4g 36s	71%	88%	88%	88%	88%
+0% 4g 59s	36%	54%	54%	54%	54%
+5% 4g 82s	16%	25%	25%	25%	25%
+10% 5g 5s	6%	11%	11%	11%	11%
+20% 5g 51s	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+30% 5g 97s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 6g 89s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at4g 48seach · −2% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 30c

Chance it sells71%~4.51h on the AH

Expected value4g 15s4g 13s more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 21% of listed quantity across 22 postings (HHI 0.1, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 21% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Tailoring: 5× Bolt of Runecloth 34s 72c, 2× Rugged Leather 16s 91c, 1× Rune Thread 48s 88c, 1× Viridian Dye 1g 56s

Materials 4g 13s → sells for 4g 36s: 23s 80c per craft