Bolt of Runecloth
Trade Goods · Cloth · item 14048 · vendor 20s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 118 | 45% | 85% | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| floor to +10% | 28 | 53% | 76% | 76% | 76% | 76% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 65 sales out of 148 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 28s 79c | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 30s 39c | 83% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +0% 31s 99c | 50% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% |
| +5% 33s 59c | 25% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| +10% 35s 19c | 12% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| +20% 38s 39c | 2% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +30% 41s 59c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 47s 98c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -18.19 ± 5.54: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.18. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 17% of listed quantity across 27 postings (HHI 0.082, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 57% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
RuneclothUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Felcloth Gloves Tailoring |
12 | 114g |
 Robe of Winter Night Tailoring |
10 | 43g 64s |
 Felcloth Robe Tailoring |
8 | 24g 94s |
 Wisdom of the Timbermaw Tailoring |
8 | 24g 61s |
 Loom Tailoring |
4 | 19g 80s |
 Felcloth Shoulders Tailoring |
7 | 17g 17s |
 Mooncloth Reagent Bag Tailoring |
4 | 14g 60s |
 Earthenweave Leggings Tailoring |
6 | 6g 52s |
 Wizardweave Turban Tailoring |
6 | 5g 23s |
 Earthenweave Gloves Tailoring |
6 | 4g 43s |
 Mooncloth Bag Tailoring |
4 | 4g 1s |
 Big Bag of Enchantment Tailoring |
6 | 3g 73s |
 Earthenweave Mantle Tailoring |
6 | 3g 46s |
 Runecloth Boots Tailoring |
4 | 2g 39s |
 Runecloth Robe Tailoring |
5 | 2g 23s |
 Frostweave Tunic Tailoring |
5 | 2g 18s |
 Frostweave Gloves Tailoring |
3 | 2g 16s |
 Brightcloth Robe Tailoring |
5 | 1g 99s |
| Runecloth Tunic Tailoring |
5 | 1g 28s |
| Ghostweave Gloves Tailoring |
4 | 1g 23s |
 Soul Pouch Tailoring |
6 | 1g 12s |
 Enchanted Runecloth Bag Tailoring |
5 | 1g 2s |
| Felcloth Boots Tailoring |
6 | 57s 43c |
 Fishing Hut Fishing |
2 | 36s 49c |
 Runecloth Cuffs Tailoring |
5 | 33s 12c |
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