Armor · Mail · item 252581
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 10 | 20% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 3 sales out of 10 tracked listings.
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
The biggest single posting holds 56% of listed quantity across 4 postings (HHI 0.383, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 62% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Leatherworking: 4×
Rugged Leather 16s 77c, 6×
Heavy Scorpid Scale 29s 99c, 1×
Rune Thread 48s 99c, 2×
Elemental Air 19s 88c
Materials 3g 35s → sells for 6g 65s: 3g 29s per craft
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