Heavy Scorpid Scale
Trade Goods · Leather · item 15408 · vendor 5s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 153 | 33% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| floor to +10% | 22 | 14% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 18 | 11% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 61 sales out of 194 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 23s 40c | 27% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| −5% 24s 70c | 25% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 54% |
| +0% 26s | 23% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| +5% 27s 30c | 22% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| +10% 28s 60c | 20% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| +20% 31s 20c | 18% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| +30% 33s 80c | 16% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +50% 39s | 12% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.70 ± 1.47: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.85. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 38% of listed quantity across 10 postings (HHI 0.211, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 91% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Pristine Scorpid Leggings Leatherworking |
40 | 279g |
 Heavy Scorpid Boots Leatherworking |
8 | 4g 18s |
 Charged Scorpid Helm Leatherworking |
6 | 3g 55s |
 Heavy Scorpid Leggings Leatherworking |
12 | 2g 63s |
 Charged Scorpid Vest Leatherworking |
12 | 2g 9s |
 Heavy Scorpid Vest Leatherworking |
6 | 1g 57s |
 Supple Scorpid Shoulders Leatherworking |
6 | 1g 16s |
 Heavy Scorpid Bracers Leatherworking |
4 | 68s 28c |
 Supple Scorpid Vest Leatherworking |
10 | 68s 27c |
 Charged Scorpid Bracers Leatherworking |
4 | 61s |
 Charged Scorpid Belt Leatherworking |
6 | −4s 24c |
 Heavy Scorpid Belt Leatherworking |
8 | −32s 49c |
 Supple Scorpid Leggings Leatherworking |
4 | −43s 82c |
 Charged Scorpid Leggings Leatherworking |
14 | −83s 10c |
 Supple Scorpid Sabatons Leatherworking |
10 | −2g 19s |
 Heavy Scorpid Gauntlets Leatherworking |
8 | – |
 Heavy Scorpid Helm Leatherworking |
12 | – |
 Heavy Scorpid Shoulders Leatherworking |
14 | – |
 Icy Scale Bracers Leatherworking |
16 | – |
 Icy Scale Breastplate Leatherworking |
24 | – |
 Icy Scale Gauntlets Leatherworking |
16 | – |
 Icy Scale Breastplate Leatherworking |
24 | – |
 Icy Scale Gauntlets Leatherworking |
16 | – |
 Icy Scale Bracers Leatherworking |
16 | – |
 Scarlet Huntsman's Coif Leatherworking |
12 | – |
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