Potion of Beast Slaying
Consumable · Potions · item 250955 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 274 | 20% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
| over +30% | 22 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 59 sales out of 296 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 4s 58c | 8% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| −5% 4s 84c | 6% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| +0% 5s 9c | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| +5% 5s 34c | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| +10% 5s 60c | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| +20% 6s 11c | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +30% 6s 62c | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +50% 7s 64c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.50 ± 0.79: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.59. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 13% of listed quantity across 26 postings (HHI 0.061, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 45% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 12s 21c | 16s 20c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 12s 21c | 16s 20c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 12s 21c | 16s 20c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 12s 21c | 16s 20c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 12s 21c | 16s 20c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 12s 21c | 16s 20c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 12s 21c | 16s 20c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 12s 21c | 16s 20c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s 99c | 16s 20c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 9s 99c | 16s 20c | 5 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 2× 
Gromsblood 23s 3c, 2× 
Plaguebloom 35s 38c, 1× 
Imbued Vial 79s
Materials 1g 95s → sells for 4s 83c: −1g 90s per craft
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