Twice-Spiced Raptor Slice
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 250077 · vendor 9c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 54 | 84% | 84% | 84% | 84% | 84% |
| floor to +10% | 45 | 47% | 66% | 66% | 66% | 66% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 55 sales out of 102 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 94c | 85% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| −5% 1s | 68% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| +0% 1s 5c | 50% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| +5% 1s 10c | 35% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +10% 1s 16c | 24% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| +20% 1s 26c | 11% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +30% 1s 36c | 6% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| +50% 1s 58c | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -9.54 ± 3.58: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.40. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 12% of listed quantity across 42 postings (HHI 0.054, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 23% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 5c | 1s 89c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 4c | 1s 89c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 4c | 1s 89c | 5 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Cooking: 1× 
Raptor Flesh 2s 88c, 2× 
Mild Spices 6c
Materials 3s → sells for 99c: −2s 1c per craft
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