Raptor Flesh
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 12184 · vendor 87c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 135 | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
| +10% to +30% | 180 | 0% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 140 sales out of 315 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2s 41c | 70% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 2s 55c | 56% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +0% 2s 68c | 43% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| +5% 2s 81c | 33% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| +10% 2s 95c | 25% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| +20% 3s 22c | 14% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| +30% 3s 48c | 8% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| +50% 4s 2c | 3% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -7.22 ± 1.63: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.50. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 17% of listed quantity across 26 postings (HHI 0.106, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 40% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 2s 39c | 3s 10c | 10 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 2s 38c | 3s 10c | 10 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Raptor Rouladen Cooking | 2 | 2s 75c |
| Raging Raptor Ribs Cooking | 2 | 1s 88c |
 Roast Raptor Cooking |
1 | 1s 20c |
| Twice-Spiced Raptor Slice Cooking | 1 | −1s 81c |
| Specklefin Feast Cooking | 4 | – |
| Prehistoric Pulled Raptor Cooking | 3 | – |
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