Consumable · Potions · item 2456 · vendor 15c
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 73 | 7% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| over +30% | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 6 sales out of 78 tracked listings.
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
The biggest single posting holds 45% of listed quantity across 18 postings (HHI 0.245, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 56% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 15c | 20c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 15c | 20c | 5 |
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Alchemy: 2×
Mageroyal 1s 8c, 1×
Peacebloom 90c, 1×
Empty Vial 6c
Materials 3s 12c → sells for 14c: −2s 98c per craft
Can craft it: Mister
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | – |
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