Peacebloom
Trade Goods · Herb · item 2447 · vendor 10c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 167 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| floor to +10% | 55 | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +10% to +30% | 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 39 sales out of 255 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 86c | 84% | 84% | 84% | 84% | 84% |
| −5% 90c | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| +0% 95c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +5% 1s | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| +10% 1s 5c | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +20% 1s 14c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +30% 1s 24c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 1s 42c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 6.91: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 20% of listed quantity across 72 postings (HHI 0.07, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 29% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 97c | 1s 92c | 8 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 97c | 1s 92c | 8 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 96c | 1s 60c | 6 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 96c | 1s 60c | 6 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 97c | 3s 28c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 97c | 3s 28c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 97c | 3s 28c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 96c | 3s 28c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 97c | 9s 36c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 96c | 9s 36c | 20 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Minor Spellblasting Potion Alchemy | 1 | 1s 56c |
| Elixir of Minor Spirit Alchemy | 1 | 76c |
| Mana Well Alchemy | 1 | 16c |
| Minor Arcane Elixir Alchemy | 1 | −14c |
| Incense Candle Herbalism | 1 | −60c |
 Minor Healing Potion First Aid |
1 | −99c |
 Elixir of Minor Defense Alchemy |
1 | −1s 22c |
 Minor Mana Potion Alchemy |
1 | −1s 87c |
 Minor Troll's Blood Elixir Alchemy |
1 | −3s |
 Minor Discolored Healing Potion Alchemy |
1 | −3s 3c |
 Minor Rejuvenation Potion Alchemy |
1 | −3s 9c |
 Elixir of Minor Fortitude Alchemy |
1 | −3s 69c |
| Peace Tea Cooking | 2 | – |
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