Sagefish Delight
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 21217 · vendor 1s 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 80 | 46% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| floor to +10% | 9 | 0% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 48 sales out of 91 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 99c | 87% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| −5% 2s 10c | 65% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| +0% 2s 21c | 43% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| +5% 2s 32c | 26% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| +10% 2s 43c | 16% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +20% 2s 65c | 6% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| +30% 2s 87c | 2% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| +50% 3s 32c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -12.23 ± 7.32: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.31. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 19% of listed quantity across 16 postings (HHI 0.1, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 27% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 2s 19c | 3s 40c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 2s 15c | 3s 40c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 2s 10c | 3s 40c | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Cooking: 1× Raw Greater Sagefish 3s 10c, 1× 
Hot Spices 55c
Materials 3s 65c → sells for 2s 9c: −1s 56c per craft
Can craft it: Mister
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